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Two days to go.

England's opening match in Australia gets under way on the morning of Friday.

Drawing on analysis from CricViz, we examine where the most eagerly-anticipated Ashes series in years could be won and lost.

It's tough to make runs, right?

Batters on both teams of the Ashes divide might be questioning why they are bothering to turn up.

A lot of the build-up has centred around the apparent challenge of scoring runs, particularly for the opening match on a Perth pitch labeled a "green monster".

When it comes to playing in Australian conditions, particularly against fast bowling, no country has been more difficult in which to accumulate runs over the last five years.

There are two reasons for this: pitches and balls.

Taken as a collective, the pitches produced in Australia have been shown to be the quickest, most bouncy and among the most inconsistent in the world.

Speed and variable bounce are the perfect recipe for difficult batting conditions.

A long-standing narrative from English cricket paints the Kookaburra cricket ball used in this country as a useless tool for a pace bowler.

A new version of the Kookaburra was introduced six years ago, resulting in increased seam movement.

Seam is a much bigger weapon than swing in Australian conditions.

Since the new Kookaburra, pace bowlers are averaging 25 runs per wicket in Australia.

Test match cricket is about problem solving.

When bowlers dominate, batsmen's contributions can be the difference, and the reverse is true.

Should this series be dominated by the ball, a batsman could have the opportunity to be the difference between the two teams.

What’s happening with the Australian pace attack?

On this occasion, England have arrived in Australia with their fast-bowling unit mostly fit, while the hosts are the ones affected by fitness issues.

Captain Pat Cummins will miss at least the opening match with a back issue, and Josh Hazlewood is unavailable for an unspecified time because of a hamstring injury.

Pat Cummins, Josh Hazlewood and Mitchell Starc were first united as a three-pronged attack for the 2017-18 series.

Since then, they have taken together 81% of the wickets taken by Australian fast bowlers in matches in Australia.

Australia have seldom needed alternatives because of the success and durability of the 'leading trio'.

When Australia have needed a back-up, Boland has been sensational, taking 62 wickets in 14 matches at an average below 17.

Aside from Boland, other members of Australia's supporting cast have performed well.

Neser, Jhye Richardson and James Pattinson all average under 30 in home Tests.

The last time Australia went into a home Test without Cummins and Hazlewood, and lost, was in 2012.

The past two times they have played at home without the pair, they have won by a combined 694 runs, featuring a win against England in Adelaide four years ago.

In infrequent cases Australia have had to go past their star fast bowlers, outcomes have remained strong – England should pay attention.

Challenging Openings

Recall the time England struggled to identify an opener to partner Alastair Cook?

Sir Chef went through partners faster than Watford change coaches.

Not anymore.

Ever since Duckett and Zak Crawley were paired at the England opening slot at the end of 2022, no batting partnership in the world has produced more runs together.

The pair's effectiveness as a partnership has been a reason in Zak Crawley being backed through some inconsistent times.

Crawley, who famously struck the first ball of the previous Ashes for a boundary, has also been recognized as having the game for Australia.

His batting average increases when the bowling gets faster.

By contrast, the Australian opening lineup is in a ongoing change, yet to fill the David Warner-shaped hole.

Following Warner's retirement at the beginning of 2024, Khawaja has walked out with five different partners in 15 matches.

Uncapped Weatherald appears likely to become the sixth in 16 Tests on Friday, giving Australia an left-handed opening combo.

It's not only the openers that has posed issues for Australia.

Marnus Labuschagne, Australia's regular number three, was moved to open for the WTC final, then left out completely.

Domestic form has earned him a recall, most likely returning to number three.

In seven Tests in 2025, Australia's top three average a collective of 25.37.

Only the opening trios of Zimbabwe and the West Indies have performed worse.

Spin war

For two so evenly-matched teams, there is a single department where Australia are unquestionably superior – spin.

Australia's Nathan Lyon, all 562 Test wickets of him, is one of the finest finger-spin bowlers to play the game.

Shoaib Bashir of England is a moderately successful gamble, looking short of form after a finger injury, while Jacks is mainly a batsman.

It makes sense for the hosts to want Lyon at the forefront, but spin bowling has been incredibly hard work in Australia for the past 10 years.

During that period, slow bowlers have averaged nearly 44 in this country, albeit Lyon's statistics largely stands up compared to the struggles of overseas spinners.

Lyon's other issue is actually bowling enough overs.

Remember the effectiveness of fast bowling?

It limits Lyon's time with the ball.

During the 2017-18 series here, Nathan Lyon was bowling 50 overs per Test.

Last year, in five Tests against India, it was only half as many.

Tests in Australia are 25% shorter since the new Kookaburra was brought in, meaning the spinner has fewer opportunities to influence the game.

Right place, right time?

The English team have a depressing habit of being beaten in an overseas Ashes before Santa Claus has loaded his sleigh.

Traditionally, the series traditionally started in Brisbane, where they have failed to win since 1986.

Recently, that has been followed by a day-night Test in Adelaide.

The visitors have a single victory in seven day-night matches worldwide, while Australia have triumphed in 13 out of 14.

Then comes Perth, a city England have visited 14 times since 1970 and won only once, against a weakened Australia in 1978.

On this tour, the first three stops on the tour are the same, only in a different order and under different circumstances.

Perth hosts an Ashes opener for the first occasion, not at the famous Waca – site of past English struggles – but the shiny new Perth Stadium.

It remains a tough assignment, though one the tourists tackle with no historical baggage.

Brisbane is the venue for the second Test, the day-night fixture.

The most recent occasion Australia played a day-night Test at the Gabba, they were surprised by the West Indies.

Likewise, the Australians are now unaccustomed to playing day matches at the typical floodlit ground Adelaide.

In the two red-ball matches played in the Adelaide since 2014, Australia were defeated once, to the Indian team, in 2018.

The re-jigged schedule gives England a fresh attempt at starting an away Ashes well, though with risks.

Australia have won four out of five matches played at Perth Stadium, though the single loss came in the latest game – against India last year.

Every Test at the new venue has been won by the team setting a target.

The English often overthink floodlit Tests, when data indicate the pink ball does not behave very differently from its traditional red ball.

The issue in {day-night matches|